New Eli Lilly drug may not be an early threat to Plavix (LLY, SNY, BMY)
Eli Lilly late Friday got the FDA’s OK to market its Effient blood thinner, but the black-box warning on its label is so strong that it’s hard to believe it can dent the market share of the Sanofi Aventis (NYSE: SNY)/ Bristol Myers Inc. (NYSE: BMY) drug Plavix.
Effient must carry a warning that tells of the potential for significant, sometimes fatal bleeding. The label recommends against its use in patients with a history of heart attack or stroke. And it’s not generally recommended for anyone over age 75.
The warning may be strong enough to put a scare into patients, and potentially doctors who must prescribe the drug. At first blush, it is hard to believe that some analysts believe it can generate as much as $2 billion a year in revenue for Lilly over time.
Plavix may be the older drug, and it even may be less effective, according to the study data. But it carries no such warning.
At minimum, adoption of Effient may be slow due to the warning. It’s certainly not a panacea for shareholders who saw Effient as way for Lilly to counter the effect of looming patent expirations. — Mike Tarsala
