Can Human Genome Really Double Its Stock Price? (HGSI)

December 28, 2011 · Filed Under analyst calls, Lupus 

At the end of December, we usually review the biotech sector to see which stocks have the most upside for the year ahead.  The basis of the “implied upside” is the consensus mean estimate from Thomson Reuters.  Sometimes the pack of analysts is very right, and sometimes they all get blind-sided. 

It was interesting to see that Human Genome Sciences, Inc. (NASDAQ: HGSI) was the top biotech and biohealth related stock as far as implied upside for the year ahead.  Perhaps the upside is because analysts were caught off their feet over the doctor-patient adoption despite that no new lupus treatment had been given FDA approval in years.  Perhaps it is now that more clarification is coming on the reimbursement and recommended drugs from physicians.

Either way, this was what biotech traders would refer to as a widow-maker in 2011.  Shares are currently around $7.07 and the $17.06 price target objective from Thomson Reuters implies more than 100% upside ahead.  Can that be true?  Most likely it is because the stock has been sold off even more than most analysts expected: its 52-week range is $6.51 to $30.15.

Many investors still hope for a takeover, but it would realistically be puzzling as to how such a deal could get done now that the share price implosion would leave so many shareholders buried with assured losses.

Read Also: The 24/7 Wall St. Top Biotechs For 2012 Over $1 Billion



13 Responses to “Can Human Genome Really Double Its Stock Price? (HGSI)”

  1. Dance Smith on December 28th, 2011 1:10 pm

    In 2011, HGSI has been ripped down to the bone. Bottomline, it did not live up to market expectations of a stellar launch. With a patient base of over 5,000 on Benlysta, there is improved understanding of its therapeutic place in treating moderate to severe SLE. Additionally, with J-Code availaibility in Jan 2012 reimbursement issues will be streamlined which should improve outpatient based sales. To top it off, GSK and HGSI are launching a direct to consumer advertsing blitz shortly which should also improve visibility and build critical momentum. If all these variables translate to exceeding revised consensus estimates in 2012, then given HGSI’s oversold condition it is very likely to at least double in value based on actual execution. Upon first sign of a turnaround, upward correction will happen rapidly rather than slowly. Remember, smart money is always ahead of the curve.

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