2011′s Overvalued Big BioHealth Names (AMLN, BIIB, EXEL, ILMN, JAZZ, MDVN, OSIR, SQNM)

January 4, 2011 · Filed Under analyst calls, Cancer, Financial, Sleep Disorder, stem cells · 10 Comments 

It is already 2011 and we have begun the coverage of our annual outlook series.  We covered the best of 2010 and an outlook for big-biotech stocks with the most implied upside already. Sometimes it is important to know also which of the big biotech and biohealth names may be overvalued when it comes to analyzing the current price and valuation data.  We have compiled data on the active biotech stocks which have at least five analysts making price target calculations for a year ahead. What we found was that a whole slew of companies were trading above the Thomson Reuters mean consensus price target objectives.  That does not assure that the analysts are right, but it means that either the analysts will have to play catch-up with price hikes or that they will be considering downgrading their expectations.

Our screen generated the following names: Amylin Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ: AMLN), Biogen Idec Inc. (NASDAQ: BIIB), Exelixis, Inc. (NASDAQ: EXEL), Illumina, Inc. (NASDAQ: ILMN), Jazz Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ: JAZZ), Medivation, Inc. (NASDAQ: MDVN), Osiris Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ: OSIR), and Sequenom, Inc. (NASDAQ: SQNM).

Amylin Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ: AMLN) is way off its highs but may still be overvalued.  The company is seeking expanded approval for its BYETTA along with Basal insulin for diabetes but it may not be enough unless the analysts are missing the boat here.  At $14.80 and with a market cap of $2.1 billion, its 52-week trading range is $9.51 to $24.21.  The unfortunate issue is that Amylin’s consensus price target is $13.21 and the great huge hope here has yet to pay off for the company.  For whatever it is worth, Amylin’s CEO Dan Bradbury was given the honor of “The worst biotech CEO in 2010″ just last month.

Biogen Idec Inc. (NASDAQ: BIIB) has handily recovered from its past woes, perhaps recovered too much if analysts are anywhere close.  Shares are now trading at $67.20, with a market cap of $16.01 billion and a 52-week range of $45.96 to $68.60.  The consensus analyst target is listed as $62.83.  In early December Credit Suisse only gave a neutral rating but did assign a $68 target.  Biogen Idec was also reiterated Neutral but its target was raised to $70 at BofA/Merrill Lynch.

Exelixis, Inc. (NASDAQ: EXEL) may be overvalued to formal targets and maybe not… It came back in focus in November-2010 on news that Phase II clinical trial data on XL184 in ovarian and prostate cancer showed that the drug appears to be a help in both tumor types after it was effectively given back rights to the drug by Bristol-Myers Squibb earlier.  Share shave jumped and jumped and now trade at $8.49 with a market cap of $925 million and a 52-week trading range of $2.86 to $9.20.  Unfortunately, its consensus price target is $7.75 and there have been shares registered for sale by insiders over the last month.

Illumina, Inc. (NASDAQ: ILMN) was one of the best of the best in 2010, but that was then and this is about valuations.  The most recent price of $64.34 generates an $8.05 billion market cap and its 52-week trading range is $29.76 to $66.59.  We’ll be looking for analysts to catch up or for the stock to back off because the consensus target is listed as $60.34 still.  This is on the instrument side of the biohealth sector in integrated systems for the analysis of genetic variation and biological function.

Jazz Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ: JAZZ) appears on the list of ‘overvalued’ biohealth names apparently just over extreme end of year performance in November and December.  Jazz shares rocked higher from under $11.00 per share to right at $20.00 for its most recent $19.96 close.  The market cap is about $776 million and the 52-week range is $6.38 to $20.28.  The consensus target is $16.80. Its sleep-disorder treatment Xyrem recently won a new patent for narcolepsy and it has seven other Xyrem patents that expire between 2019 and 2024. It also raised guidance in November after swinging to a better profit.  Jazz is still greatly under-followed by analysts with only 5 real targets out there.  This may be a situation of catching-up that is needed by analysts rather than a major concern that something is wrong at Jazz.

Medivation, Inc. (NASDAQ: MDVN) imploded early in 2010 on an Alzheimer’s disappointment.  Shares are now around $16.09 with a $556 million market cap and a very wide trading range of $8.43 to $40.49.  Unfortunately, its consensus price target is $14.50 per share.

Osiris Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ: OSIR) is tricky considering that it aims for the stem cell therapeutic segment.  At $7.77, its market cap is $255 million and its 52-week trading range is $5.39 to $9.24.  Unfortunately, its consensus target is $5.88.  Shares have been in a trading range for more than a year after a big sell-off and there is just an information gap that implies that Osiris could end up like “Ra” or “Rat” if you forgive the Egyptian mythology pun.

Sequenom, Inc. (NASDAQ: SQNM) is currently back up off its post-implosion lows.  The investing public has no idea how lucky they are that it is even still a public and traded company because it could have disintegrated entirely.  Shares are trading around $7.85 and have a market cap of almost $600 million and a 52-week trading range of $3.91 to $8.65.  The consensus price target is unfortunately $7.13

Sequenom was an interesting name in the screen even if it is more into diagnostics rather than cures.  It recently raised capital at $6.00 per share, so it has popped rather well.  The $7.85 price is trading above the $7.13 consensus price target.  Piper Jaffray initiated coverage with an Overweight rating in mid-December and gave it a $8.00 price target.

As you can see, being screened as ‘overvalued’ may be no fault of the company and may not even matter in the long-term development plans of a company.  Sometimes stocks outperform the market and they can outperform enough that the analysts have either not updated their coverage or maybe it was ‘too much too fast’ in that performance.

JON C. OGG

Outlook 2011: 2010 BioHealth Winners Part 1 (ARIA, CHTP, CYCC, ENMD, EXAS, EXEL, FOLD, IDIX)

November 29, 2010 · Filed Under daily · Comment 

2010 has so far lacked all of the juice that drove many biotech stocks exponentially higher in 2009.  For starters, the start of this year was not initiated with a deadly round of panic selling and followed by a major recovery in share prices with a hard V-bottom.  We have also had what feels like fewer FDA blockbuster approvals at the same time that many key drugs expected to be approved were either denied approval outright or were given severe delays.  We wanted to review the companies that are up more than 100% from their lows of the last 52-weeks to see which have prospects out into 2011 or beyond.

Some of the key bioheath stand out names for 2010 are Ariad Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: ARIA), Chelsea Therapeutics International Ltd. (NASDAQ: CHTP), Cyclacel Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ: CYCC), EntreMed Inc. (NASDAQ: ENMD), Exact Sciences Corporation (NASDAQ: EXAS), Exelixis, Inc. (NASDAQ: EXEL), Amicus Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ: FOLD), and Idenix Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: IDIX).  A second list will post on Tuesday.

Ariad Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: ARIA) is around $3.93 and its 52-week range is $1.94 to $4.49.  The market cap is almost $500 million and average volume is about 1.27 million shares per day.  The company will present updated clinical data from a fully enrolled Phase 1 trial of its investigational, pan-BCR-ABL inhibitor, ponatinib, at the 52nd Annual Meeting of the American Society of Hematology (ASH) being held in Orlando, Florida, December 4-7, 2010. These Phase 1 findings in patients with resistant and refractory chronic myeloid leukemia will be featured in an oral presentation.

Chelsea Therapeutics International Ltd. (NASDAQ: CHTP) has been very volatile this year.  At $5.26, it has a market cap of $258 million and its 52-week range is $1.94 to $7.00.  The company has raised cash by selling equity and it is currently in a phase III hypertension study, a Phase III Parkison’s study, and a Phase II R.A. and a Phase II fibromyalgia study.

Cyclacel Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ: CYCC) has a long history of price volatility.  Around $1.85, its 52-week trading range is $0.75 to $4.08, although the low close was under $3.00.  The market cap is still under $85 million and average volume is close to 725,000 shares per day.  It is developing oral therapies that target the various phases of cell cycle control for the treatment of cancer and other serious diseases, and it will show Phase II clinical trial results of sapacitabine for the treatment of myelodysplastic syndromes at a poster presentation during the 52nd Annual Meeting of the American Society of Hematology (ASH) in Orlando, on Saturday, December 4, 2010.

EntreMed Inc. (NASDAQ: ENMD) has been wildly volatile after falling from over $10 to almost $2 before its recovery of late.  Around $6.25, its 52-week range is $2.26 to 13.64, its market cap is about $60 million, and its average volume is about 70,000 shares.

Exact Sciences Corporation (NASDAQ: EXAS) focuses on the early detection and prevention of colorectal cancer, and sometimes it feels more ‘exact’ than others.  With shares around $5.71, its 52-week range is $2.43 to $9.24.  The company has a $231 million market cap and its average volume is in excess of 1.3 million shares per day.  From July to October it ran from $3.50 to $9.24 but the $9.00 level was not a closing high.  The company recently raised about $64 million in cash, so the numbers on its market cap may now be different.

Exelixis, Inc. (NASDAQ: EXEL) was out of focus but came back in focus in November after data from a Phase II clinical trial testing XL184 in ovarian and prostate cancer showed that the drug appears to be a help in both tumor types.  It was effectively given back rights to the drug by Bristol-Myers Squibb earlier.  At $5.80, its 52-week range is $2.86 to $8.00 and the market cap is $631 million.  This remains a wild card as it is still actually down in 2010 so far.

Amicus Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ: FOLD) is close to new near-term highs at $4.30 versus a 52-week range of $1.88 to $4.53.  The market cap is roughly $119 million and average volume is only about 30,000 shares.  It was in late-October that it entered into a License and Collaboration Agreement with Glaxo Group Limited to develop and commercialize Amigal, which is currently in Phase III studies for the treatment of Fabry disease.

Idenix Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: IDIX) has also been one that has cut both ways in 2010.  After an 8% drop, shares are down around $4.03, its 52-week range is $1.83 to $6.11, its market cap is just shy of $300 million, and its average volume is just over 400,000 shares per day.  The most recent pop higher came from announcing a $20 million milestone payment from ViiV Healthcare for the initiation of Phase IIb trial of its ’761 for the treatment of HIV/AIDS.

For part two you can read: Outlook 2011, Part II: 2010 BioHealth Winners (AMRN, ILMN, INHX, JAZZ, NBIX, NPSP, THRX, VPHM)

JON C. OGG

Carl Icahn Narrows BioHealth Focus (AMLN, BIIB, ENZN, CYBX, EXEL, FRX, GENZ, REGN)

November 16, 2009 · Filed Under Financial · Comments Off 

Carl Icahn, via his Icahn Capital LP and other entities owned the following drug and biotech or biohealth names.  There may be some overlaps because of more than 1 filing, but here goes:

Amylin Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: AMLN) 12,971,328 shares;
Biogen Idec Corp. (NASDAQ: BIIB) 3,215,051 shares, second filing showed 12,860,205 shares;
Enzon Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: ENZN) 704,214 shares;
Cyberonics Inc. (NASDAQ: CYBX) 2,107,972 shares;
Exelixis Inc. (NASDAQ: EXEL) 2,357,110 shares;
Forest Labs (NYSE: FRX) 1,000,000 shares
Genzyme Corp. (NASDAQ: GENZ) 1,450,800 shares;
Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: REGN) 2,508,001 shares.

Two smaller positions were omitted.

This is not the smallest amount he has held in biotechs and biohealth plays, but the focus looks narrower than in the past when there were more positions.

JON C. OGG

Early ASCO Winners & Losers (IMMU, ONTY, MEDX, HGSI, EXEL, OSIP)

June 1, 2009 · Filed Under Cancer, daily · Comments Off 

We have captured the big biotech movers from the ASCO conference over the weekend or related news moving the stocks in the biotech sector this morning.  Here these are grouped by name and ticker, and the first price is Friday’s close and the second price is the pre-market price snapshot at 9:00 AM EST.  After that is the percentage of the price change and the appropriate volume seen as of the 9:00 AM EST cut-off.

STOCK GAINERS:

Immunomedics, Inc. (IMMU)
$2.49       $2.85      14.46%       13,500

Oncothyreon Inc (ONTY)
$2.61       $2.92      11.88%       212,479

Medarex, Inc. (MEDX)
$7.24       $7.80      7.73%       3,790

Human Genome Sciences, Inc. (HGSI)
$2.47       $2.65      7.29%       49,141

STOCKS TRADING LOWER:

Exelixis, Inc. (EXEL)
$5.55     $5.22     5.95%     123,953

OSI Pharmaceuticals Inc. (OSIP)
$33.80     $32.50     3.85%     22,220

Jon Ogg

Full 2009 ASCO Cancer & Oncology Primer (ABII, AEZS, ALTH, AMGN, APPA, ARQL, BMY, CLDX, CELG, CTIC, CGRB, LLY, EXEL, GHDX, GSK, IMGN, MEDX, MDVN, MITI, OGXI, OSIP, PPHM, PFE, ROSG, SNTA, TRBN, ZIOP, ZGEN)

May 27, 2009 · Filed Under Cancer, dendreon, R&D · Comments Off 

We have already seen a massive round of abstracts ahead of the huge American Society of Clinical Oncology, or ASCO meeting for 2009, which is scheduled to start this weekend.  ASCO is usually thought of as the Holy Grail of cancer conferences and these abstracts and presentations are viewed by investors, analysts, clinicians, doctors, and by cancer patients.

We compiled a brief synopsis for the following drug and biotech companies: Abraxis BioScience, Inc. (NASDAQ:ABII), AEterna Zentaris Inc. (NASDAQ: AEZS), Allos Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ: ALTH), Amgen Inc. (NASDAQ: AMGN), A.P. Pharma, Inc. (Nasdaq: APPA), Arqule Inc. (NASDAQ: ARQL), Bristol-Myers Squibb (NYSE: BMY), Celldex Therapeutics (NASDAQ: CLDX), Celgene Corporation (NASDAQ: CELG), Cell Therapeutics (NASDAQ: CTIC), Cougar Biotechnology, Inc. (NASDAQ: CGRB), Eli Lilly and Company (NYSE: LLY), Exelixis (NASDAQ: EXEL), Genomic Health, Inc. (NASDAQ: GHDX), GlaxoSmithKline (NYSE: GSK) , Immunogen (NASDAQ: IMGN), Medarex (NASDAQ: MEDX), Medivation, Inc. (NASDAQ: MDVN), Micromet, Inc. (NASDAQ: MITI), OncoGenex Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ: OGXI), OSI Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: OSIP), Peregrine Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (Nasdaq: PPHM), Pfizer Inc. (NYSE: PFE), Rosetta Genomics (NASDAQ:ROSG), Synta Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: SNTA), Trubion Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (Nasdaq: TRBN), ZIOPHARM Oncology (NASDAQ: ZIOP), and ZymoGenetics, Inc. (NASDAQ: ZGEN).

Be advised that some of the data may have been changed since the first abstracts came out, but this is an expansive list of companies with data.
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ASCO's Pre-Abstract Previews (ABII, ALTH, ARQL, CLDX, CTIC, CGRB, LLY, EXEL, GHDX, GSK, IMGN, MEDX, MDVN, OGXI, OSIP, PPHM, PFE, SNTA, ZIOP)

May 14, 2009 · Filed Under Cancer, daily, dendreon, General · Comments Off 

The first massive round of abstracts ahead of the huge American Society of Clinical Oncology, or ASCO meeting for 2009, is due out 6:00PM EST.  This is thought of as the Holy Grail of cancer conferences and these abstracts are being picked apart all night by hundreds of investors, analysts, clinicians, doctors, and even by cancer patients.  We have brief data here for the following biotech and drug companies, and you can bet there will be more than this: Abraxis BioScience, Inc. (NASDAQ:ABII), Allos Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ: ALTH), Arqule Inc. (NASDAQ: ARQL), Celldex Therapeutics (NASDAQ: CLDX), Cell Therapeutics (NASDAQ: CTIC), Cougar Biotechnology, Inc. (NASDAQ: CGRB), Eli Lilly and Company (NYSE: LLY), Exelixis (NASDAQ: EXEL), Genomic Health, Inc. (NASDAQ: GHDX), GlaxoSmithKline (NYSE: GSK) , Immunogen (NASDAQ: IMGN), Medarex (NASDAQ: MEDX), Medivation, Inc. (NASDAQ: MDVN), OncoGenex Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ: OGXI), OSI Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: OSIP), Peregrine Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (Nasdaq: PPHM), Pfizer Inc. (NYSE: PFE), Synta Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: SNTA), and ZIOPHARM Oncology (NASDAQ: ZIOP).

Be advised that there may be new data from many of these companies between now and the May 29 to June 2, 2009 meeting in Orlando, Florida.  We have already compiled a pre-ASCO cheat sheet to get in ahead of some of these abstracts, and the brief notes are as follows:
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